Pitt, Gibbs shooting for more in NCAA tournament

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/18/2010 -

PITTSBURGH (AP) -Ashton Gibbs glanced at the statistics sheet following Pittsburgh's 50-45 loss to Notre Dame in the Big East tournament and didn't believe what he saw.

The Panthers, forced into a slow-paced game by the Fighting Irish's deliberate offense, scored only 16 points in the second half.

Another number surprised him, too: Gibbs, Pitt's leading scorer and lone proven outside shooter, took only four shots. Or as many shots as some top shooters manage in four or five possessions.

``I want to take what the defense gives me, and I took four shots. It's something that I did - and we lost,'' Gibbs said.

In a season that began with coach Jamie Dixon re-emphasizing the importance of playing don't-give-them-a-step defense, the third-seeded Panthers' inconsistent offense might be their biggest worry heading into Friday's NCAA West Regional game against 14th-seeded Oakland (26-8) in Milwaukee.

While the Panthers are among college basketball's biggest overachievers, winning 24 games after being picked to finish ninth in the Big East Conference, they've regressed offensively since last season.

They allow an average of only 61.4 points per game, but their scoring average is down nearly 10 points per game - from 77.8 to 68.1. They've been held to 66 points or fewer in eight of their last 15 games, a slump that has forced them to play excellent defense merely to stay in games.

Gibbs is a concern, too. After scoring 20 or more points three times in a four-game span from Feb. 8-21, he has been held to 13 points or fewer in four of his last five games and five of his last seven.

It's difficult to have a big game when a player is getting only four shots.

``I'm looking at how I can get myself more open - that wasn't a regular routine for me during the season - but at the same time, I'm going to take what the defense gives me and not try to force anything,'' Gibbs said. ``My team has been doing a great job of finding me open spots and screening for me, now it's my turn to get away from my man and get as open a shot as I can.''

Pitt senior Jermaine Dixon suggested there was another reason for Pitt's inability to score against Notre Dame.

``Notre Dame slowed the game down big time, but when we got shots, we took quick shots,'' he said. ``They were holding the ball for 30, 35 seconds. We've got to take better shots.''

Gibbs needs to take more shots, if only because he understands what can happen if Pitt keeps struggling for points.

This is Pitt's ninth consecutive appearance in the NCAA tournament, yet the Panthers have advanced past the round of 16 only once since 2002 - losing to Villanova 78-76 in a regional final last season.

``Anybody can be beaten at any given time,'' Gibbs said before the Panthers left Wednesday for Milwaukee. ``Being in the NCAA tournament is something you've got to cherish. We have a good seeding now, and it's our turn to take advantage of it.''

Jamie Dixon likes that Pitt beat Marquette at Milwaukee's Bradley Center only last month, since that's where the Panthers play Friday - and, if they win, where they will play Sunday against sixth-seeded Xavier or 11th-seeded Minnesota. The Panthers beat Xavier 60-55 in a regional semifinal last season.

Gilbert Brown, one of only three current Pitt players who played substantial roles in the tournament last season, also isn't scoring consistently. His scoring totals over his last 12 games: 25 points, 0, 23, 6, 16, 5, 16, 3, 17, 0, 19, 3. The 5-point game was at Marquette.

Based on his pattern, at least Brown is due for a big game against Oakland.

``If we can maintain our focus, and just go out there and execute like we're supposed to, we should be fine in these first couple of games, even though I know they're going to be tough ones,'' Brown said. ``You see the potential games that you could play (later), but your main objective is to focus on the first game.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards