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03/17/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, March 21. Race: Food City 500. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 266.5. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: FOX. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
After taking the first off-weekend of the season, the Sprint Cup Series will return to Bristol, and all eyes will be focused on Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski.
Edwards begins his three-race probation period at Bristol. The Roush Fenway Racing driver avoided suspension after he deliberately hit Keselowski from behind and sent him flying upside down into the frontstretch wall last week at Atlanta.
Both drivers had an earlier encounter in the Atlanta race when Keselowski clipped Edwards and shot him up the track before he hit the wall. Edwards spent most of the event behind the wall, but retaliated against Keselowski shortly after he returned to the track. NASCAR immediately parked him for the altercation.
Atlanta was the latest in an on-going feud between Edwards and Keselowski. The issues between the two began last April when Keselowski hit Edwards from behind and sent him airborne into the wall during the final lap at Talladega. NASCAR plans to meet with both drivers and their team owners on Friday before Bristol track activities begin.
Will the Edwards-Keselowski rivalry continue at Bristol? It will make for an interesting weekend, as the two also compete in Saturday's Nationwide Series race.
Bristol recently underwent a track modification, with the addition of more than 160 feet of Steel and Foam Energy Reduction (SAFER) barriers. Track personnel extended the "soft wall" by three feet at the exits of turns two and four. The modification at the high-banked, half-mile track comes nearly three years after a fresh layer of concrete and four feet of additional width led to multiple racing grooves there.
With less room to move, drivers will have to adjust to the traditional style of racing at Bristol -- a lot of beating and banging.
"I like all the room that you can get at some of these race tracks, so that's going to make it tough," said Kyle Busch, who won both Cup races at Bristol last year. "They did it for the excitement of the racetrack and try to put some bumping and grinding back into that place. The exits were already tight with these cars. It's going to slow down the pace probably a little bit, because we don't have as much room on the exits to use. Maybe it will make for better racing. I'm hoping so."
Jeff Gordon, a five-time race winner at Bristol, thinks the barriers will make a considerable difference in racing at Bristol, but drivers should adjust to it quickly.
"We use every inch of that race track," Gordon said. "It is definitely going to be unique. I am anxious to get there and see how many right sides we take off the first hour of practice. It is like anything else, eventually you get used to it."
Heading into Bristol, Kevin Harvick holds a 26-point lead over Matt Kenseth and a 59-point advantage over Greg Biffle. All three drivers have recorded top-10 finishes in the first four races this season.
Four-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson, who won at California and Las Vegas last month, has moved up to fourth in points (-74) following his 12th-place run at Atlanta.
Bristol is one of six tracks where Johnson has yet to win.
"We're getting close," Johnson said. "It's taken a lot from me as a driver to change my habits in the way I drive that race track and really drive any race track. I've had to completely switch over to a different driving style. It was easy for us to look at what had worked for [Gordon's team] for so many years, but I just couldn't make that work. Our styles are so different that I couldn't make it work."
The spring race at Bristol is the first of six short-track events on the season schedule. Next week, the series will run at Martinsville.
Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Food City 500.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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